Housing Market Trends: Older Buyers, Cash Purchases, and 2026 Rebound

Housing market shifts include older first-time buyers, rising cash purchases & down payments. Experts predict a sales rebound in 2026 if mortgage rates fall, driven by changing buyer motivations.

The ‘grandbaby effect’: On the other hand, some generations are simply not moving. The common remain in a home is now 11 years, up from the historic standard of six or 7, and Gen Xers and older millennials particularly are tending to stay put.

Cash Purchases and Down Payments Rise

Rise in cash purchases, higher down payments: Another fad Lautz highlighted: cash purchases. While it’s not unexpected that all-cash acquisitions are floating around all-time highs amid raised home mortgage rates, what could be unanticipated is that 8% of new purchasers are paying in cash. On the whole deposit amounts are likewise near document degrees.

2026 Housing Market Forecast

During a Nov. 14 presentation at NAR NXT 2025, Lawrence Yun predicted that existing home sales will certainly jump 14% following year after what’s anticipated to be a flat 2025, and new home sales will certainly increase in 2026 complying with a 2% decrease in 2025. Home rates are forecast to increase 4% in 2026 following a 3% bump in 2025.

With the average age of new purchasers more than ever, agents are encountering a various type of client contrasted to 10 or twenty years earlier. “Not only are they middle-aged, however we additionally see that they have greater earnings,” Lautz stated.

At NAR NXT 2025, Principal Financial expert Lawrence Yun predicted that the Fed will continue cutting temporary rate of interest to fight a conditioning task market– which might motivate some sidelined home buyers to commit to acquiring in 2026.

Lautz claimed it’s crucial for the industry to understand that consumers’ factors for relocating have actually additionally moved. When the typical keep in a home was six or seven years, a work modification was the most usual factor for a move. Rise in cash acquisitions, greater down payments: An additional trend Lautz highlighted: cash acquisitions. While it’s not unusual that all-cash acquisitions are floating around all-time highs amid elevated home mortgage prices, what may be unexpected is that 8% of novice purchasers are paying in cash.

Older First-Time Homebuyers

First-time buyers are growing older: The national media has actually been buzzing over NAR’s most recent account of property buyers and sellers, which discovered that the average age of first-time buyers has actually climbed to 40. NAR Replacement Chief Economist Jessica Lautz aimed out that there are other large changes taking location when it comes to home purchases.

These relocations by the Fed incorporated with a weaker task market ought to bring about a drop in mortgage prices. Yet Yun doesn’t expect the decline to be steep, as government debt and other factors will give some headwinds.

HOUSTON– After three years of disappointing home sales, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist assumes 2026 will finally bring a rebound– but just if home loan prices continue to decline.

Changing Reasons for Moving

Lautz stated it is essential for the industry to comprehend that consumers’ factors for relocating have actually also moved. When the ordinary remain in a home was six or seven years, a task adjustment was the most usual reason for an action. Today, the top factor is to be closer to family and friends.

Yun, in addition to many others in the industry, assumed home loan prices would drop far more in the past 3 years adhering to a rate spike in 2022. But relentless inflation– which remains at around 3%– has actually maintained 30-year prices floating near 6.5% or higher.

Not just are these older newbie buyers relying on money financial savings or household aid for down payments– they’re also using economic assets. “This is very unusual, because we’ve never seen it (monetary assets) exceed the ‘Bank of Mom and Dad,'” Lautz claimed, noting that it may be extra unpleasant to obtain from parents at 40 than at a younger age.

“I call this the grandbaby impact, because when we check out the data, what we see is that individuals are transferring to be closer to the grandkids,” Lautz claimed. That makes sense, she added, with the common age of a repeat purchaser having actually climbed to 62.